Discussion odds of dying (video)

[Thatdude]

Found an interesting video on dying. One of the interesting things it said was there is a highly likely that you will win the lottery than die on any given day.



I found this interesting because it in it's own way point out how unlikely we are to die without nudging the likely someway.

 

[toomuchtimetodie]

I'm sorry but just because some uninformed toss pot on YouTube states something it doesn't mean it's true. There are 365 days in most years, and people on average who play regular would spend say 50 of their about 75 -80 playing lotto so you'd have to be buying thousands of tickets a day using the same numbers to come close. If that. What a stupid attempt at scaremongering.

 

[InTheAirTonight]

I want a big rock to crush me

 

[Thatdude]

The video is nonsense: most conventional lotteries have a one in several million probability of a single ticket winning. The unconditional probability of dying on an arbitrary day is several magnitudes higher (there are about 30,000 days in 80 years).

Ya I posted it without thinking. After you mention it, I started to do the math. I think some science journals 5 or 10 years ago was pointing out how we have enough memory that it will take around 700 years to fill up. Lets just say 1,000 years. Even at that, that's 365,000 days. Which means they are missing about 3 0 to make their statement true. However, their statement might be true when you take a look at your likely to die in any given second over 80 years. My math might of been wrong, but that worked out about 8.6 times the odds of the powerball. But it should be noted this doesn't look at your current age compared to 80.

With that in mind, why I jump the gun is because the odds of just dying is still low. As you mention, there are 29,200 days in 80 years (
0.0034%). While the odds go up the older you get. The odds are still far against you dying any time soon without you going way out of your way. Like if we half that to 40 years (like if you were 40 years old). Assuming you expect to live up to 80 years, you're still looking at around 1 out of 14,600 (0.00684%).
I figure there is a better way to figure out the math. But I'm sure it will almost always show there is an extremely low chance you will die on any given day if you lived an average life, and you didn't force it.


Again, sorry about jumping the gun there.

 

[a.n.kirillov]

Found an interesting video on dying. One of the interesting things it said was there is a highly likely that you will win the lottery than die on any given day.



I found this interesting because it in it's own way point out how unlikely we are to die without nudging the likely someway.

Depends on what he means by winning the lottery... If he means win at all, like say, one dollar, then sure. But the jackpot? Nope