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noname223

Archangel
Aug 18, 2020
5,636
I don't think He is. But Putin probably cannot believe how much luck He has. Trump adapts to All Russian narratives. Europe and the US might split. Maybe Trump's goal is to split Russia from China. I don't think this has a high likelihood for success. Why should Russia leave the alliance with China. Who knows who is in the Oval Office in 4 years? Russia's problem is they become more and more dependent from China and the US might help. But certainly Russia won't help Trump to pressure China. Russia doesn't want US hegemony.

There are two theories. Either Putin tries to squeeze everything out of Trump stopping sanctions, re-gaining reputation, better economical relations etc. by acting like He wants peace. He will more and more invest in military. But He could remain passive regarding other European countries except Ukraine.

Or he will test NATO by invading a Small town in an Eastern European country. Especially one with many Russian speakers where He can pretend they get suppressed thus helping them is a necessity. This would test NATO article 5. And very likely without the US NATO will fall apart. But the scenario is more intricate. But this could spark a heated conflict between Europe and Russia which would mean we are officially in World war 3.

I am not sure which theory I believe. There are also many less likely scenarios. What Do you think?
 
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SchrodingerIsDed

SchrodingerIsDed

Specialist
Feb 17, 2025
382
Obviously not. Trump is America First. Whatever he is doing it's intent is to help America. I don't think it's a Russian allyship. If you recall, he also formed a good relationship with the leader of North Korea. Not because he's trying to become allies with North Korea--because that's how you get deals made. And Obama told him that North Korea was the biggest threat facing the U.S., so he handled it.

Trump is probably playing nice with Russia while planning to get the EU off the Russian Oil and Gas cock . We've spun up 100 more energy facillities will be drilling for a lot more oil and gas, and America will probably start supplying the EU in preparation for when Russia tries to invade the EU and to boost income in preparation for when China tries to take Taiwan or goes otherwise overboard.

If Russia shuts off the EU's oil and gas--remember the pipeline "accidental explosion"? then the EU is going to have major problems beyond just testing of Article 5.

It's all a chess game and they think longer-term than immediate moves or like "He was nice to Putin, he must be a Russian asset." He's obviously not. He said it himself in the Zelensky meeting. "I can be tougher than anyone, but that's not how you make deals."

He's tough when he needs to be tough, and he's nice when he needs to be nice.