waived
I am a sunrise
- Jan 5, 2019
- 974
Why do you post so many ridiculous things?
to spread awareness and just so I can expect u to give me that response 
GoodPersonEffed
Brevity is my middle name, but my name was TL
- Jan 11, 2020
- 6,727
My unsolicited constructive criticism...
If you genuinely want to spread awareness, there are some things that would help:
- Linking the sources of the information you share (not an issue on this thread but on others)
- Giving an intro to the source, such as who is in this recording, and who is producing it
- Giving a re-cap and highlights of the points you consider most valuable
- Actually participating in the conversations you start
Otherwise:
- It's low effort posting/spamming
- It's proselytizing
- It's trolling, as your comment #3 here alludes to. Al Franken called it "kidding on the square" -- acting like one is joking but not joking at all. Another example of trolling is dropping bombs with no sources or analysis, and then sitting back and watching others argue and get emotional without engaging. That's not spreading awareness, it's spreading fertilizer.
If you genuinely want to spread awareness, there are some things that would help:
- Linking the sources of the information you share (not an issue on this thread but on others)
- Giving an intro to the source, such as who is in this recording, and who is producing it
- Giving a re-cap and highlights of the points you consider most valuable
- Actually participating in the conversations you start
Otherwise:
- It's low effort posting/spamming
- It's proselytizing
- It's trolling, as your comment #3 here alludes to. Al Franken called it "kidding on the square" -- acting like one is joking but not joking at all. Another example of trolling is dropping bombs with no sources or analysis, and then sitting back and watching others argue and get emotional without engaging. That's not spreading awareness, it's spreading fertilizer.
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I'm not forcing this on anybody or perfect about the sources for info. This is difficult info to take in and seems unbelievable to the average person. Nobody forced u to listen. This is just info for those who have the capacity to hear this info and judge for themselves. As much as I've been harmed in my life by gov policies in my own life, I recognize the capacity of what governments are capable of.
GoodPersonEffed
Brevity is my middle name, but my name was TL
- Jan 11, 2020
- 6,727
lmroch
Experienced
- Jun 24, 2019
- 234
What is really going on and reasons for the lockdown? There is masses and masses of reliable info!
A couple weeks ago a Harvard Research Study came out.
This man does a live stream for hours daily. He started this well before it came the the USA.
The Imperial College put out a report.
Here is a summary of that report:
We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.
Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.
This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.
That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.
Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.
After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.
But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.
Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.
Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.
It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end
A couple of clarifications/corrections. 1) An error on my end: 45 million global deaths would be the most from a pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918, not since the Middle Ages. Apologies for the mistake.
A couple weeks ago a Harvard Research Study came out.
This man does a live stream for hours daily. He started this well before it came the the USA.
The Imperial College put out a report.
Here is a summary of that report:
We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.
Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.
This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.
That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.
Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.
After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.
But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.
Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.
Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.
It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end
A couple of clarifications/corrections. 1) An error on my end: 45 million global deaths would be the most from a pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918, not since the Middle Ages. Apologies for the mistake.
mattwitt
# 978
- Jun 28, 2018
- 2,307
Thanks for posting this FE. I listened to the whole thing. And I watched and listened to this YT video last week...
If you listen starting at the 26:00 mark till about the 28:00 mark you'll hear exactly how scary the vaccines are !
And if you haven't noticed over the past couple of weeks they keep using an 18 month timeline for a vaccine to come out and 18 months of rolling lockdowns.
They are going to use this virus to achieve everything they want to achieve on planet Earth for as long as it takes.
Throwawaysoul
Wizard
- May 14, 2018
- 605
Plandemic!
Facts and science are simply a manifestation of the liberal media.
The idea of this "plandemic" was actually started in the basement of a pizza restaurant by an elite group of gay frog lizard people, headed by CEOs of Lysol and Zoom. Which just so happen to be related to the Charmin Bears.
First responders are all millennial crisis actors.
The images we see inside hospitals were made on "the moon landing" set in liberal Hollywood.
People just need to be sheep and go back to work being sheep.
We the people must rise up against our oppressors! We need to grab our guns, get in our pickup trucks and demand we go back to work for the rest of our lives!
BlackPoppet
Wise woman and Celtic sky person
- Mar 7, 2020
- 991
@Final Escape .... I thought you might find this interesting. Tell me what you think about it.
MartyByrde
Experienced
- Mar 15, 2020
- 286
Ever consider looking at yourself, instead of blaming your problems on the government? And if so, what came of it, if anything?
Jumper Geo
Life's a bitch and then you die.
- Feb 23, 2020
- 2,910
Shocking for the people who want to live and I believe her, you have no family your frightened and will gladly accept any treatment to save your life, I smell a Micheal Moore documentary or it will all come out in years to come in a movie.
So how do I get a flight to New York from the UK.
Cheers
Geo
BlackPoppet
Wise woman and Celtic sky person
- Mar 7, 2020
- 991
Final Escape is entitled to an opinion.
It's all gone Pete Tong. Hasn't it?! We are living in bizarro world. It almost seems like there is a depopulation agenda! Agenda 20-30!!
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MartyByrde
Experienced
- Mar 15, 2020
- 286
Ok, dude. However, my questions were directed to her--nothing to do with you. Thanks for the obvious statement though.
artificialpasta
Member
- Feb 2, 2020
- 88
MartyByrde
Experienced
- Mar 15, 2020
- 286
Got that right!
I like to think of us as the wealthy teenagers of the world. All money--no sense.
BlackPoppet
Wise woman and Celtic sky person
- Mar 7, 2020
- 991
I'm a female by the way. I'm going to stick up for Final Escape. I don't need you telling me about myself.....kay!! You were rude in your question to Final Escape. All I'm saying is Final Escape is entitled to an opinion. Go and shill for daddy government in your own time.
Erdapfel
I am a german potato
- Feb 19, 2020
- 48
I believe that there is no more violent medical system than conventional medicine.
waived
I am a sunrise
- Jan 5, 2019
- 974
Of course I blame myself for some things but the government has definitely altered the course of my life to be worse than if we had still lived in a society with less government interference. Please don't respond to my postings anymore. Clearly u have issues with me and enjoy trying to start shit and stir the pot.
BlackPoppet
Wise woman and Celtic sky person
- Mar 7, 2020
- 991
Yeah true. In proper dialogue and discourse, however you are not engaging in that .....are you? Prove to me beyond all reasonable doubt, that what you believe is fact! Then. ..... You shouldn't diss someone else's point of view or opinion. You sound like you are an" appeal to authority type. Yes opinions can and should be challenged in the quest for truth, facts, reason and logic. So go ahead and challenge us! Amuse me with your acumen. .....::Clarice.
Small government is where it's at! Yes!!
@Final Escape.... ignore the doubters! You are worth more. I'm with you boo.
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waived
I am a sunrise
- Jan 5, 2019
- 974
I am not going to festoon the thread with lingual formalities and respect because the people trolling such theories wouldn't even be able to use such a gift if it was given to them. I have no reason to believe that you or final escape are capable of defining 'proper dialogue and discourse'.
It is clearly a surprise to you here that backing up your claims is a thing people successfully do sometimes. Since you're new to this, the way it works is that the burden of proof is on the bearer of the bullshit. So when you either post something and can't explain it or explain it with other concepts that you then cannot explain, you are not providing enough proof for me to care.
BlackPoppet
Wise woman and Celtic sky person
- Mar 7, 2020
- 991
This was posted yesterday evening. As we were debating. I haven't posted anything today. I thought we'd cleared the air. Well I thought we did any way. I don't get it.
Are you still on this tip? Cos it's kinda boring now. Maybe leave the ego and self righteousness at the door.
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waived
I am a sunrise
- Jan 5, 2019
- 974
I didn't think air clearing was needed and I'm unaware of a problem otherwise. I replied here because your post gave me the opportunity to further clarify my position. I have no reason to believe that you or final escape are capable of defining 'proper dialogue and discourse'. Not because I think you're stupid but because of the notable aversion towards dialogue and discourse in relation to these topics.
MartyByrde
Experienced
- Mar 15, 2020
- 286
People who post outright false, hate-fueled, easily disproved information are quite a bother to me. Since you've been on the site for nearly two years, I'm assuming you know how to use the block function. You're welcome to ignore me, like you do with facts.
And I thought the wings I ate last night burned. God damn, this is nearly murder with words. Intelligent, reasonable, well-written words. I love it! Such a shame, because they won't get that either.
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BlackPoppet
Wise woman and Celtic sky person
- Mar 7, 2020
- 991
Ok cool. I can discuss them. I don't have an aversion to discourse and dialogue. I mean I don't claim to know everything. I guess these topics are ones that a lot of people are scared to tread. Politics and such, you know. I think defining dialogue is tricky when both parties ( in whatever discussion) thinks they are both right. My definition of dialogue is simply discussing a topic with the opposing side.
Im glad you clarified your position. I agree that there is an aversion to certain topics. So dialogue can turn ugly and reactionary as a result. I'm always willing to learn new things and to evolve. I still stick to my beliefs, but I'm not completely static.
These topics can be tricky at the best of times. It's always good to at least try and talk about them. As adults. Even then, it can be hard.
Are you sure " Marty "???? I don't remember sending for you. Of course you can always make me a sandwich, whilst I use you as a foot stool. No one's burnt hunty. Please continue to give me joke!
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MartyByrde
Experienced
- Mar 15, 2020
- 286
Shill for daddy government?
Fuck off with that bullshit.
And fyi: "Dude" is a unisex term.
You might want to get your own house in order before making yourself the designated defender. That didn't go so well for the last woman who tried that here.
BlackPoppet
Wise woman and Celtic sky person
- Mar 7, 2020
- 991
Threats don't go down well with me. Now fuck off back to your basement.
You don't even know me..... joker!
MartyByrde
Experienced
- Mar 15, 2020
- 286
Nor do you know me, yet you feel it's appropriate for you to call me a "government shill." Not to mention, I had not even replied to your post in the first place.
Sounds like you're still bitter about the demon crow's wife being banned. Are you designating yourself the queen mother now?
BlackPoppet
Wise woman and Celtic sky person
- Mar 7, 2020
- 991
I probably shouldn't have called you a government shill. But lots of people don't trust their government, for good reason. Government don't have their citizens best interest at the forefront of their minds. Lots of governments control their citizens. It's happening as we speak. It just seemed to me that you were sticking up for the government. I probably shouldn't have called you a shill, so I'll woman up and apologise for that. It was rude and reactionary. I'm hot headed!!
I was standing up for Final escape, that's all. It wasn't personal to you.
No I'm not anything special. I don't think I'm the queen mother. Lol. I don't know who was banned as I've only been on this site for a little while. I've got a big mouth and a lot to say. That's all. I'm just a girl from London, trying to do my best.
So once again I apologise for calling you a shill. That was rude of me. It's not really my intention to argue with anyone on this site. We are all here for the same thing. To find a commonality. To support each other. We are all different people with different personalities, views, opinions etc. Sometimes we cross swords. It is what it is. So anyway, that's my piece said. I hope you except my apology.
