Sensei
剣道家
- Nov 4, 2019
- 6,336
We may be in an initial stage, or even second or third stage, of a slow and gradual decline of society. It may sound like a gross exaggeration, but there are several problems which coincide in a perfect storm this century:
× Available agricultural land is shrinking due to accelerating erosion, desertification, and climate change. This may entail famine and mass migration.
× Global warming will entail permanently flooded agricultural land and cities, evacuation of island nations, spreading of diseases such as malaria, extreme weather and widespread wildfires.
× The oil supply is shrinking. Drilling for oil is becoming increasingly more complicated and expensive. The situation is the same for several metals and minerals. Eventually, this will result in dramatically higher prices, perhaps even critical shortage.
× The heliosphere is weak due to solar inactivity and the weakening of the magnetosphere is accelerating. Cosmic radiation will raise cancer rates and make electronics malfunction.
× The amount of debris in orbit is increasing and it already threatens satellites. Eventually, it may become impossible to launch and keep satellites in orbit which will hamper navigation and communication
× Serious diseases, most notably influenzas, are spreading. There have been outbreaks of deadly diseases such as SARS and MERS in recent years and it's probably only a question of time before hemorrhagic fevers such as ebola start spreading on a global scale.
× The overuse of antibiotics may eventually make several diseases untreatable, such as infections, pneumonia, tuberculosis, and the plague. In the worst case scenario, there will be a renaissance for pandemics of the past.
× In accordance with neo-liberal doctrines, wealth and power is transferred to private companies on a global scale. The objective of private companies is to earn money, not protect society, and they have short-term perspectives and can't easily coordinate their efforts. In other words, our ability to protect ourselves against disasters is in decline.
× Authoritarian tendencies can be seen in many parts of the world, such as Russia, Turkey, Brazil, the USA, and the Philippines. The various dictator wannabes are not exactly enlightened despots, but rather incompetent clowns who ignore or downplay large-scale threats.
Then there are also some potential threats with uncertain probabilities:
× Russia and the US are modernizing their nuclear arsenals. Both Putin and Trump have indicated that they are ready to use nuclear weapons if need be. The risk of a global nuclear holocaust is probably slim, but even a limited nuclear strike can lead to widespread fallout and affect the global weather.
× It's difficult to say how likely it is, but terrorists could get get hold of nuclear weapons. There are several possible targets, but Washington D.C. is the most worrying scenario. What will happen if the American government is eradicated? Unsanctioned retaliatory nuclear strikes against targets in the Middle East?
× Biological weapons, both natural and engineered, can spread, either by mistake or by design. They can obviously be more fatal than naturally occurring diseases. Theoretically, they can be so-called ethno-bombs, i.e. designed to target specific ethnic groups.
× Hypertechnology such as artificial intelligence and advanced nanorobots may very well become a reality this century. The consequences of such breakthroughs are difficult to predict, but may be disastrous.
× A large asteroid or meteorite may hit earth. This may sound unlikely, but actually it isn't. The 18 December 2018 an asteroid exploded over Bering Strait with the power of 175 kiloton, more than 10 Hiroshima bombs. The astronomers happened to detect the explosion first after it had happened.
In short, interesting times await us.
× Available agricultural land is shrinking due to accelerating erosion, desertification, and climate change. This may entail famine and mass migration.
× Global warming will entail permanently flooded agricultural land and cities, evacuation of island nations, spreading of diseases such as malaria, extreme weather and widespread wildfires.
× The oil supply is shrinking. Drilling for oil is becoming increasingly more complicated and expensive. The situation is the same for several metals and minerals. Eventually, this will result in dramatically higher prices, perhaps even critical shortage.
× The heliosphere is weak due to solar inactivity and the weakening of the magnetosphere is accelerating. Cosmic radiation will raise cancer rates and make electronics malfunction.
× The amount of debris in orbit is increasing and it already threatens satellites. Eventually, it may become impossible to launch and keep satellites in orbit which will hamper navigation and communication
× Serious diseases, most notably influenzas, are spreading. There have been outbreaks of deadly diseases such as SARS and MERS in recent years and it's probably only a question of time before hemorrhagic fevers such as ebola start spreading on a global scale.
× The overuse of antibiotics may eventually make several diseases untreatable, such as infections, pneumonia, tuberculosis, and the plague. In the worst case scenario, there will be a renaissance for pandemics of the past.
× In accordance with neo-liberal doctrines, wealth and power is transferred to private companies on a global scale. The objective of private companies is to earn money, not protect society, and they have short-term perspectives and can't easily coordinate their efforts. In other words, our ability to protect ourselves against disasters is in decline.
× Authoritarian tendencies can be seen in many parts of the world, such as Russia, Turkey, Brazil, the USA, and the Philippines. The various dictator wannabes are not exactly enlightened despots, but rather incompetent clowns who ignore or downplay large-scale threats.
Then there are also some potential threats with uncertain probabilities:
× Russia and the US are modernizing their nuclear arsenals. Both Putin and Trump have indicated that they are ready to use nuclear weapons if need be. The risk of a global nuclear holocaust is probably slim, but even a limited nuclear strike can lead to widespread fallout and affect the global weather.
× It's difficult to say how likely it is, but terrorists could get get hold of nuclear weapons. There are several possible targets, but Washington D.C. is the most worrying scenario. What will happen if the American government is eradicated? Unsanctioned retaliatory nuclear strikes against targets in the Middle East?
× Biological weapons, both natural and engineered, can spread, either by mistake or by design. They can obviously be more fatal than naturally occurring diseases. Theoretically, they can be so-called ethno-bombs, i.e. designed to target specific ethnic groups.
× Hypertechnology such as artificial intelligence and advanced nanorobots may very well become a reality this century. The consequences of such breakthroughs are difficult to predict, but may be disastrous.
× A large asteroid or meteorite may hit earth. This may sound unlikely, but actually it isn't. The 18 December 2018 an asteroid exploded over Bering Strait with the power of 175 kiloton, more than 10 Hiroshima bombs. The astronomers happened to detect the explosion first after it had happened.
In short, interesting times await us.
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