I think we should try to act as if it's not. Free will always feels real in immediate experience so it requires no effort for us to act as if it's real. Remembering that the universe and consequently everything in it is deterministic requires conscious effort.
I think a species that operates under the assumption that it's free to shape its own destiny is less cautious, more vengeful and judgemental and less willing to understand. The feeling that we are free to as we choose would be under no danger of disappearing if we collectively decided to accept a determinstic view of the universe and ourselves. It's not a scary prospect. We'd still feel ourselves to be freely choosing things. We'd just retain the insight that in a mechanical universe we should try to be kinder, less punitive and more understanding.
I'm not sure really. I'd propose a situation where I think free will does come in: resistance.
So- as an example, a person wants to do that thing- whatever it may be- ranging from not great to criminal. They want to eat that cake (even though they're on a diet.) They want to steal that camera. They want to hurt that person.
If we are able to resist the temptation to do those things in that moment- do we actually believe it's through determinism? Or, an enormous effort of free will to make ourselves resist?
Perhaps we are more able to resist- because of determinism. A strong religious upbringing maybe. A heightened sense of will power or empathy. Common sense that we'll be arrested.
But then- why don't rapists and murderers rape and murder multiple times a day? Any time the want arises? How come they are able to resist those feelings one day and, not another? Surely- because they are making decisions constantly.
Are things so very different half an hour ago, last tuesday, last week or a month before, when they had that same desire to do that exact (forbidden) thing but, resisted? How comes suddenly, they couldn't resist? What changed in that short period of time? Surely, things within them stayed the same. They just chose yes instead of no. They may have denied themselves a hundred, a thousand, even a hundred thousand times. Was it truly fate that made them finally do it on the one thosandth and one? How can you be sure they weren't destined to do it the tenth time they thought about it?
Perhaps they were always more likely to choose 'yes' as in- yes- I will hurt that other person. But, the simple fact that people can and do resist those urges- likely more than they succumb to them shows that we do have tremendous power over our desires.
I worry in the opposite direction. That, if they make a decision to act on a criminal thought- they are going to rape that person. And, they figure that it's all determinism anyway. They were destined to rape that person. It isn't their fault at all. Everyone will understand that. Where's the motivation to stop themselves? If they can't be blamed.
Why are they even so sure they were destined to be a rapist? Why are any of us sure that was their destiny? Probably people very similar to them with the same urges, still managed to resist them. Why and how? Are some people unavoidably criminals? Some will always want to do criminal acts but, will resist and, some will never commit crime? I always dislike the way determinism removes responsibility from people.
And, how does it relate to suicide? Is suicide a determined act? An unavoidable act? I personally believe my life isn't destined to end in suicide. I think there are reasons as to why it could likely end that way but ultimately, it will be my decision. Whether I choose to live on and likely struggle or, face the frightening prospect of attempting to destroy myself.
To be truthful OP, the article looked really interesting and, I find it an interesting subject. I honestly only scan read it for now but, one thing did occur to me- which always tends to void my own disbelief in determinism.
That is- that I do indeed believe it's possible to change. Even the most likely outcome for a person- given their history and genes is probably still avoidable, given they have a reasonable other course to follow.
But, isn't that in itself determined by determinism? Why did that person have the strength to quit smoking say? To resist hurting someone? To shun a criminal life and go straight? Was it something in their past that nudged them in that direction? Was it concern for their own future maybe? But then, what or who got them thinking about a (likely) better future for themselves?
Definitely I think we can change. We can make more morally sound choices but- we need the motivation to do so. Especially if we have a propensity to do harmful things. So, are the 'good' or better routes just as predermined as the bad ones- to some extent?
Not that I'm a big personal fan of religion. But, many ex cons seem to find religion. Maybe that's good if it stops them from hurting others. But, what made them open to it in the first place?
Surely, to some extent, every decision we make is informed by our past, our present and notions of our future. I think all those things acting upon us can make our choices very far from inevitable because- things are changing so much.
Say on a diet- we are being tugged in all directions. We want to be slim but we're hungry. We may feel emotionally in need for comfort food but we know it will only be a quick fix. It likely depends just how strong we feel in that moment on whether we can resist.
But, just with that decision- so many things come into play. How important our appearance ultimately is to us. Why are we trying to lose weight? For our own health or, because we're embarassed of what other people think of us?
So much comes into play when we make even the smallest of decisions. We can't help but be influenced by everything around us. But, I still struggle to believe that all our decisions were inevitable/ predictable even.
I suppose the way I see it is that at any given juncture, we have multiple paths ahead of us. I think most people know what the better/ more moral path is to take. We just make decisions in the moment as to which looks like it yields the most benefit in that moment- a lot of the time. Maybe influenced by what we feel we need the most. And- that changes too.
Is that the bit that's determined though? Do those that resist harmful acts on others have a greater need to be considered a good person? Does their empathy get in the way? Would overweight people like me be slim if we were more vain? What choice are we most likely to make?
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