Jay Sea

Jay Sea

Member
Mar 23, 2023
41
excerpt from On the Origin of God(s) by Means of Supernatural Selection

Could nuclear weapons ever be used again in the future? By asking the question in a serious way, we will have to contend with some very complicated issues. An affirmative answer to our question might be unthinkable to many, after all, nuclear weapons have not been used since the end of World War II; although regional wars and conflicts were fought out at various times throughout the world, most developed nations have enjoyed a period of relative peace and prosperity; while many hope for this state of peace to continue, others believe they have good reasons to think that nuclear weapons will never again be used intentionally.

We acknowledge the significant progress that various nations have made towards nuclear disarmament and reduction, and the impact that diplomatic and geopolitical balancing may have had in preventing other nations from developing these weapons. We acknowledge that generally speaking, nations and governments tend to act rationally in self-preservation and cooperatively towards common interests. Many stakeholders reasonably conclude that the cost of using nuclear weapons is too high and impractical for achieving any meaningful objectives, often summarized by the statement that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought". We acknowledge the importance of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty amongst other international laws and customs as important milestones towards disarmament and security. In sum, we acknowledge there exists a variety of safety mechanisms designed and implemented to ensure nuclear safety.

But despite all that, many of us are not so convinced, and are left with lingering questions: are the net effect of these mechanisms sufficient in all cases? Do they guarantee our safety from future nuclear disasters with absolute effectiveness? Or could the safeguards eventually fail despite our best efforts?
 
H

Hollowman

Empty
Dec 14, 2021
1,326
Putin's been threatening to use them, I kind of hope he does.
 
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Dr Iron Arc

Dr Iron Arc

Into the Unknown
Feb 10, 2020
21,044
I'm sure Tik Tok brain rot or something like that will cause whoever the world leaders are in 2080 or later to be stupid enough to initiate nuclear war without hesitation. Those guys are probably watching it right now from their baby iPads.
 
DarkRange55

DarkRange55

Enlightened
Oct 15, 2023
1,814
One of the things that trump did that I was most displeased with was his unilateral withdrawal from the INF (intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty).



It remains a constant possibility but low-probability. Iran/Israel is currently most worrying, Russia tactical or N Korea not impossible (esp. if the US is stupid), India/Pakistan seems a bit less likely now but still possible.

Or something got fucked up and there was a mistake and everyone thought that somebody launched something. They really didn't or something like that and we end up nuking each other all on accident but the chances of that happening are very low. However, the time window in the past for such incident has been 10 minutes to verify, which has saved the world on multiple occasions and that window may be going down to two minutes, which may not be enough time to verify, but who knows

By the time off-world colonies are self-sufficient we will be past the danger.

The doomsday clock was a good idea, but it is a bit theatrical in its exaggeration of the (very real) dangers.


 
L'absent

L'absent

À ma manière 🪦
Aug 18, 2024
561
They will be used against some country without nuclear weapons. No country with nuclear weapons will attack a country with nuclear weapons.