What about policy positions and who do you think is more likely to fulfill their promises?
Well Trump's already been President for four years. We know what his policies are. I don't expect that either Biden or Harris can be strong enough to actually call the shots once in office.
For the most part, he's tried to do what he said he would do as a candidate. He's been called a "liar," but what major campaign promises has he broken? He tried to make nice with China and Russia, but when they tried to take advantage of that, Trump turned on them. He saber rattled on North Korea, but who's rationally opposed to making peace, as long as it's from a position of strength rather than weakness and appeasement?
The reason three consecutive Presidents have been reelected for the second time in American history is because we know where they are headed, and because they've generally made an apparently sincere attempt to carry out their promises.
The last two elected Presidents to lose reelection bids were Jimmy Carter and GHW Bush. Both broke major campaign promises. During the 1976 campaign, candidate Carter promised that the Panama Canal would remain in the hands of the United States. (Many of the Senators who voted to give it to Panama instead lost their next elections.) GHW Bush famously promised, "Read my lips! No new taxes!' Then he raised taxes and lost to Bill Clinton.
Before Carter, the last elected President to lose a reelection bid was Hoover in 1932, torpedoed by the Great Depression. No incumbent could have won in that situation. If Trump goes down, it will be because of the transient issue of COVID, a situation likely to again doom whoever the incumbent happened to be.
An incumbent POTUS knows the realities of the office, what can and can't be done. That's why they tend to get reelected. If Trump wins now, that will be a history making fourth consecutive reelection. For all the publicity shown by the media on civil unrest, that would be a profound megatrend in support of stability.
If George W. Bush had mismanaged Katrina before he was reelected, winning a second term might have been extremely difficult for him. Interestingly, disaster relief management is NOT among the major campaign issues being used against Trump, despite the fact his four years in office have seen a record number of natural disasters, hurricanes, fires and earthquakes. He's been on the ground promptly in devastated areas and quickly authorized large relief aid packages.
Obama was the least tested President in recent history when it came to managing natural disasters. We have no idea if a Biden/Harris administration can manage a situation like that competently. However, the H1N1 swine flu 11 years ago infected over 60 million according to the CDC, against just over nine million for COVID at the moment. It was just dumb luck that only a little over 12,000 were killed by a virus which was related to the 1918 influenza pandemic. The 2009 H1N1 crisis offers no suggestion that Biden would have managed COVID any more competently than Trump has. Again, 60 million infections 11 years ago versus nine million infections just now.
Keep in mind that if Biden/Harris wins and proves to be incompetent, it'll be too late for buyer's remorse. The Democrats might be better off losing this one and fielding a strong nominee guaranteed to win in 2024. Because Biden and Harris were such weak candidates during the primary campaign, I expect they'd be similarly weak once in office. Trump was an extremely strong primary candidate in 2016, and he's proved to be a strong POTUS. He overruled his then NSA John Bolton in refusing military retaliation in favor of sanctions when Iran shot down an American drone, then he overruled the dovish elements advising him when he decided to take out Soleimani. He appears to be in charge, the boss, his own man.
Harris tried to destroy Biden in Iowa, only to get shot down in turn by Gabbard. I don't know how cohesive a team Biden and Harris can be once in office, but I can't buy them being on the same page.
I like peace, not war, and peace is best maintained and enforced through strength, not weakness.
Obama was handed an unearned Nobel Peace Prize simply for getting elected, then went on to become the only two full term wartime POTUS in history. Trump is trying to extract the country from foreign military conflicts. I expect a Biden/Harris administration will return us to the middle eastern quagmire.
Personally, I think about marrying a nice young Russian girl and moving to the Russian Federation. (CBT is far more realistic and convenient for me though.)