• Hey Guest,

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    However, today, we stand up these these governments that want to bully or censor this website.

    Fuck OFCOM, and fuck any media organization or group that think it's cool or fun to stalk or bully people that suffering in this world.

    Edit: We also wanted to address the veiled threats made against a staff member in the UK by the BBC in the news today. We are undeterred by any threats, intimination, by the BBC or by any other groups dedicated to doxxing and harassing our staff and members. Journalists from the BBC, CTV, Kansas Star, Daily Mail and many other outlets have continuiously ignored the fact that many of the people that they're interviewing (such as @leelfc84 on Twitter/X) and propping up are the same people posting addresses of staff members and our founders on social media. We show them proof of this and they ignore it and don't address it.They're all just as evil as each other, and should be treated accordingly. They do not care about the safety of our staff members, founders, or administrators, or even members, so why would they care about you?

    Now that we have your attention, journalists, will you ever address this? You've given these evil people interviews, and free press.

DarkRange55

DarkRange55

Enlightened
Oct 15, 2023
1,699
Lets look at the Vegas odds…

I always look where people are betting their money because money is more powerful than political affiliation. People will bet their money even where their heart isn't. Follow the money. It's not always 100% true but I believe it more than I believe any form of media. I like to watch the Vegas money, it's interesting. People cam have all these strong beliefs but where they bet their money is where their real belief is. As the old proverb says, "where a man's money is, there you will find his heart."
(It's an adaptation of Matthew 6:21, which states, "For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.")
People's true allegiance - right now, at least the gamblers are with Trump on this one. Kamala has had quite a jump up.

The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866
1. Who's taller?
2. Who's the incumbent?
3. The state of economy?

1. More than 60% of the time, the taller person has won. When the shorter person has won it's usually been about an inch difference. Kamala is about 5'6" - 5'7". Almost a foot shorter than Trump.
2. She's never been president and Trump has.
3. Who is responsible for the most recent economic up or down? Biden is saying inflation isn't high but just check the grocery store… Most Americans perceive America as in a down. It doesn't matter what anyone puts out. The general consensus of most Americans is that it's on the down.

My friends who are more conspiracy theorists say the powers that be will manufacture something. I don't know. I like numbers, I'm a business person.

Presidential election betting odds:

William Hill

  • Donald Trump: -200
  • Kamala Harris: +200
Bet 365
  • Donald Trump: -200
  • Kamala Harris: +200
via Covers.com

Bovada
  • Donald Trump: -215
  • Kamala Harris: +190
BetOnline
  • Donald Trump: -200
  • Kamala Harris: +185
Oddschecker
  • Donald Trump: -164
  • Kamala Harris: +275
 
Z

zengiraffe

Member
Feb 29, 2024
46
1. Who's taller?
I feel like this matters more when both candidates are male. Trump is also taller than Hillary but she won the popular vote by 3 million votes in 2016. Hillary ultimately lost, but she didn't lose to Trump, she lost to America's arcane and stupid electoral college system.

2. Who's the incumbent?
Neither. Trump was president once before but he lost in 2020 to Biden, and not because people loved Biden, they just really hated Trump. The same people who hated Trump in 2020 still hate him in 2024, and are going to vote for Kamala this time around.

3. The state of economy?
Your point makes sense, and I don't know enough here to make any counter arguments. It's possible the current inflation could hurt Kamala's chances.

I do think one thing worth noting is how huge Trump was online and in the media from 2015 - 2020. Everyone was following his twitter. /r/The_Donald was one of the most active subreddits on reddit. He was constantly on every news channel. Yet since then Trump was banned from twitter and hasn't returned. /r/The_Donald was also banned from reddit back in 2020. I think news channels are now also more cautious about reporting on Trump since most of them have realized their coverage helped instead of hurt him back in 2015 - 2016. He was also the underdog back in 2016 which made his supporters even more rabid. Trump has none of the momentum going into the 2024 election that he had back in 2016.

TL;DR: I don't agree with the betting odds. I think it's closer to 50/50.
 
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DarkRange55

DarkRange55

Enlightened
Oct 15, 2023
1,699
I feel like this matters more when both candidates are male. Trump is also taller than Hillary but she won the popular vote by 3 million votes in 2016. Hillary ultimately lost, but she didn't lose to Trump, she lost to America's arcane and stupid electoral college system.


Neither. Trump was president once before but he lost in 2020 to Biden, and not because people loved Biden, they just really hated Trump. The same people who hated Trump in 2020 still hate him in 2024, and are going to vote for Kamala this time around.


Your point makes sense, and I don't know enough here to make any counter arguments. It's possible the current inflation could hurt Kamala's chances.

I do think one thing worth noting is how huge Trump was online and in the media from 2015 - 2020. Everyone was following his twitter. /r/The_Donald was one of the most active subreddits on reddit. He was constantly on every news channel. Yet since then Trump was banned from twitter and hasn't returned. /r/The_Donald was also banned from reddit back in 2020. I think news channels are now also more cautious about reporting on Trump since most of them have realized their coverage helped instead of hurt him back in 2015 - 2016. He was also the underdog back in 2016 which made his supporters even more rabid. Trump has none of the momentum going into the 2024 election that he had back in 2016.

TL;DR: I don't agree with the betting odds. I think it's closer to 50/50.
I just meant statically if you're a betting person. Really looking at Wall Street would be the thing to do. But they wine either way.
Inflation (overall; it's a basket of goods) is down. Look at the stock market. But it's the perception that matters.
As Clinton's campaign said, "its the economy, stupid"
Definitely a difference between a gamble, a speculation and an investment.
I just think it's interesting to see where people are betting their money on this.
I'm not saying I agree with these odds but thats what Vegas is favoring.
Kamala was the VP, that counts as an incumbent and statistically they're just been too few women too draw these parallels I suppose
 

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