I don't know what autism is about. I'm too lazy to discover more, and no one bothered giving me a meaningful explanation of what autism represents, which I find amusing, because I associate autism with high degree of reasonableness. Anyway, quick judgement: autists are very reason-reliant and require high cognitive capacity to thrive in life, they are commonly referred to as high-functional autists. To process stuff and navigate through day-to-day life. Most of them (us?) weren't granted with winning cards, but when they do -- the results are astonishing. I believe that success (however you have defined it) requires things we have no independent control of, aka a given, a granted.
How likely? How do we predict anything? Spot patterns, links and connections, I guess, and make predictions based on them, which again requires brainwork...
What are the major influential contributors? That you have to define for yourself. Research articles on the link between autism and things you want/don't want; personal interests; how well-constructed your body is; suchlike. I'm convinced it is not worth for me to make a living with the instruments I was granted, so what I do is play Skyrim and watch comedies most of the day, while also plot against my primal brain by devising a relatively easy, effortless, painless method. But of course our circumstances are different. You ask a lot of questions while I'm not, for example.