Poll: Who will win the US presidential election 2024?

[noname223]

In 3 months and 1 day the election is happening. I think it is a good time point to make this poll.

I will go with Kamala. My main reason for that is that Alan Lichtman goes with her. This professor who predicted almost all US presidential elections right. It is not his final prediction. But he said it had to happen a lot so that Harris loses.

I don't trust pundits too much their analyses have such a shortterm focus. After Trump survived the assassination attempt everyone said it will be him. Now after Biden is replaced most people only talk about Harris. Lichtman said Biden would have been even a better candidate. I am not sure whether he said that because it follows his model or whether he genuinely believes it. I would find it funny if the Trump assassination attempt would actually have led to Trump losiing. I had the feeling the pressure on Biden get that strong because Trump looked so strong and invincible. While Biden confused Zelensky with Putin and Harris with Trump. We don't know whether he would have been replaced if there did not happen that attempt on Trump's life.

Personally, I go with a chance of 70-75% that Harris wins.
Trump 30-25%.
Third candidate close to zero.

 

[zengiraffe]

I hope it will be Harris but as for who will actually win I have no idea. I honestly think it's a toss up.

 

[-nobodyknows-]

If Harris wins, people will lose their shit.

If Trump wins, people will lose their shit.

I am not looking forward to November.

 

[damienlerone03]

If Harris wins, people will lose their shit.

If Trump wins, people will lose their shit.

I am not looking forward to November.

raid on the capital part 2

 

[Blurry_Buildings]

My political opinions aside I think undoubtedly Trump will win. The DNC needs a miracle fast to turn this around.

I also said I didn't think biden would drop out though...

 

[pollux]

Probably Trump imo, not following it closely (not american).

 

[sserafim]

Trump

 

[Placo]

 

[endofline2010]

Harris. I think she's a two-faced hypocrite. But she's young and attractive, relative to DT. Also, she supports reproductive rights at the federal level, so will easily pull the female vote except for bible and koran thumpers. She'll pull the black vote too.

 

[Minsu]

I support Harris.

Trump represents for me the world I really hate -> violence, offence, sexual harassment, toxic conservativism, racism, no rights for LGBTQ+.

Trump and his supporters are a disaster for the world and good people

 

[HereTomorrow]

This is more of a realistic answer rather than what I actually want, but I would say Donald Trump would win 2024.

I live in a very left wing area, and while many people appear to support Harris, when you remove the implied consequences of the "crazy Trump supporter" label, I noted a lot of people secretly support Trump's policies both in closed circles at work and online spaces (not every Trump voter carries a MAGA hat or displays it on their lawn). So many Biden supporters in 2020 were baffled to see many people vote for Donald Trump back then with all the things against him (including a literal pandemic).

It's difficult to truly say a direct answer with confidence, since the country is very much split evenly on various topics. There's a lot of dirty fighting, personal attacks, media biases, and both sides would say the opponent is cheating at something if they won. It genuinely makes me worried, but all we can really do is vote, sit, and wait.

Also, people generally wouldn't want to assassinate someone if they were going to lose.

 

[yellowjester]

Also, people generally wouldn't want to assassinate someone if they were going to lose.

"People" - you mean 2 random ass schizos who were most likely former aupporters of Trump?

 

[Davey40210]

I think it's a toss up as well.

Harris performed better in the debate than expected.

 

[Professor K]

If only it could be a third party candidate. Obviously it's unlikely to happen.
Both Trump and Harris are the same absolute garbage, I wish people could see that.
Americans are still stuck with black and white thinking, Republican or Democrat, Trump or Harris.

However I'd say it's possible that more people vote Trump this time because they want change.