Maybe Joe Biden is the right candidate to beat Donald Trump

[noname223]

Let's be contrarian.

These debates usually don't matter. The media makes a lot of fuss about it. The media is obsessed about it but most people already decided who they will vote for. Yes Biden's performance was a disaster. So what? He has the incumbency bonus. His policies and legacy matter. These debates are a spectacle for the media but in the end they barely have an impact on the voting decision. I think there were some statistics and scientifical research on it.

I was pretty interested what Alan Lichtman had to say about the race. Actually he gave a German newspaper an interview just today. Not even behind a paywall. This political scientist predicted almost all US elections right I take his statements very seriously.

I know maybe it is a copy right infringement but I will post parts of the interviews translated with google translator. It is very insightful.

Here is an interesting US article on him. https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/

The German article: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politi...vor-umsturz-bei-den-demokraten/100048824.html

Translation:
Biden debacle US historian warns of a coup among the Democrats

Allan Lichtman is considered an oracle of US politics because of his precise forecasts. After Biden's debacle in the TV debate, the historian says clearly: The president must not withdraw.Annett Meiritz June 29, 2024 - 8:12 a.m
.Joe Biden at a campaign appearance on Friday:

Political expert Lichtman warns Democrats against replacing the leading candidate. Photo: APWashington. The "13 Keys to the White House" is a more than 40-year-old forecasting system for the outcome of US presidential elections. It was developed by the American historian Allan Lichtman - based on the model of scientific calculations of earthquakes. Since 1982, Lichtman has used this model to correctly predict the outcome of all US elections. After the TV debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which went disastrously for the incumbent, calls are growing to replace Biden as the Democrats' leading candidate. But that would be the wrong decision strategically, argues Lichtman. He explains why in an interview with Handelsblatt.

Professor Lichtman, was the TV debate the death blow for Joe Biden's presidential campaign?
I assume that Biden will stay in the race. He would take a leaf out of former President Franklin Roosevelt's book, who ran a vigorous campaign after being questioned. Or Barack Obama, who was written off before his re-election and, contrary to all expert opinions, turned things around. We must not forget that it is early in the election cycle. Anything can happen by November.Fear is spreading in the Democratic Party. Rightly so?The Democrats have no backbone. Yes, Biden was weak in one performance. But his party should defend him as the incumbent president. It should stand up for the fact that his political achievements cannot be destroyed within 90 minutes. But what do the Democrats do? At the first sign of a crisis, they give in and lose their nerve. They are in panic mode.

Isn't that understandable? Half the world has seen Biden falter even after days of preparation.Television debates have no value in predicting an election result. Hillary Clinton won all the TV debates in 2016 and still lost the election. John Kerry overshadowed George W. Bush and still lost in 2004. I call on people not to lose sight of the bigger picture. It is not the election campaign that has the greatest influence on the result, but the government's record.Biden must stay - on one condition
What would be so bad about replacing Biden? After all, that could give momentum to the election campaign, which would be good for democracy.With all due respect, whoever says that has no idea how presidential elections work. If you kick Biden out and try to replace him, you give up a major advantage in one fell swoop: the incumbent bonus, combined with his huge campaign apparatus, including financial clout. A contested vote to succeed him is a very bad idea. In 125 years, no party has ever won re-election after an internal party mudslinging match.I don't quite understand that yet. If Biden's physical weaknesses are so obvious, isn't it better to pull the emergency brake?If there is any other way - that is, if Biden's health allows it - it makes much more sense to hold on to him than to drop him. Replacing him now would be an admission of weakness. It would call into question Joe Biden's entire administration and give the Republicans a major advantage.The media keeps falling for Trump

Allan Lichtman US historian Don't the Republicans already have this advantage?
After such an easy victory in the TV debate against Biden?At this point I have to criticize the media. I respect you journalists, but you are partly responsible for the fact that we are all focusing on Biden's blunders instead of Trump's blatant lies and his attacks on democracy. The whole TV debate was a farce, starting with the moderators who simply let Trump's untruths stand. He was allowed to say: "The Democrats are killing babies" or "The 2020 election was rigged" and nobody intervened. The media keeps falling for Donald Trump. He is, after all, the former president and the Republican frontrunner. Not reporting on him would be irresponsible.But it's all about the right balance. Trump gets great ratings, that's the only reason why his criminal trial in New York was a media spectacle, and why Trump was allowed to go on air every single day and lie, rant, and rage. Even though he always said the same thing, so the news value was limited. Biden has problems - but so does Trump You have a point in that Trump's untruths are currently being pushed into the background. Does nobody care anymore what he says? It's long been no secret that the Republicans have abandoned their principles since Trump came into power. Trump's election campaign is based on lies, and in the TV debate alone he spread 30 false facts. Among them is the biggest lie, that the 2020 elections were rigged. That's fatal. When a society loses the pursuit of truth, everything is lost.You have been correctly predicting the winner of the US elections for more than 40 years.

Who will it be this time?
I don't claim to be a clairvoyant with a crystal ball. I am a historian who looks at the longer term and whose model has proven itself. But I won't commit myself before August; the circumstances are too volatile for that. We don't know what the Democratic Party will decide or how the criminal proceedings against Donald Trump will develop. Both candidates have health problems. They could affect either Biden or Trump at any time.

 

[unabletocope]

he's the only candidate there, there will be no change and if they do change candidates trump will get a landslide, I think the democrat party needs a big shake up, cleaning out the Clintons Obamas Bidens would be quite a healthy thing

 

[Blurry_Buildings]

Having spent much time with many of them I don't think the swing voters in the key districts/states will pay attention to what is or isn't factual.

I think most of them will pay attention to how Trump sounded powerful and logical while Biden could barely form complete sentences. Trump could start multiple new conspiracy theories and the swing voters would have no reason to not believe him over the shadowy media organizations they distrust.

 

[yellowjester]

Having spent much time with many of them I don't think the swing voters in the key districts/states will pay attention to what is or isn't factual.

Do they not see and feel how much the Biden admim has done for them?

The whole world is envying the american economy right now.

 

[damienlerone]

lowkey i think both trump and biden are 2 big ol idiots like don't even get me started on that presidential debate
my idea is that the US government creates an specific AI of george washington and have him run as president, all we have to do it catch the AI up to date, implement human rights and shit, and then for the ethics, to make it the least corrupt as possible we have a popular vote type thing on different ethics, then we run each president decision stuff through the AI, any physical manual work we can have the vice president do or something idk, but decision making to the AI

 

[avoid]

my idea is that the US government creates an specific AI of george washington and have him run as president

Presently the President is Biden. I wonder if he's still capable in performing his Presidential duties in his current state of health. And to what kind of degree his duties are vital to keeping the Government running. I think he's doing the bare minimum or perhaps his only duties nowadays are ceremonial to be in compliance with American law and government policy making. If this is the case then does the US really need a president? In the end, it's the Republican or Democratic Party as a whole that hold the cords in hand and keeps the government running.

 

[damienlerone]

we need an age limit is what we need, sleepy joe looks like he's about to pass out dead any second now

 

[EternalShore]

we need an age limit is what we need, sleepy joe looks like he's about to pass out dead any second now

I mean~ sure ig~ but Queen Elizabeth was rather functional for most of her life~ Plus, Donald Trump is only 3 years younger than Biden~ Maybe an age limit would make there be candidates people actually liked tho~ rofl~ Doubt it tho~:(

 

[Blurry_Buildings]

Do they not see and feel how much the Biden admim has done for them?

The whole world is envying the american economy right now.

I think they are upset about inflation and don't care about how the GDP/ economy overall is doing, since it doesn't affect them directly. To them the economy is just how much groceries and rent cost. They are pinning these cost increases on Biden, and it seems to be playing well into Trump's narrative about Biden mismanaging national security and immigration as well, since Trump especially hates even slightly unequal trade deals or the US being seen as weak internationally. Trump is trying to tie in the immigration crisis to the economy and America's perceived international weakness as well.

Trump never cared too much about polarizing social issues like abortion, BLM, and LGBTQ rights either, which is helping him pick up record numbers from the affected populations in the polls, since some of them otherwise sympathize with his agenda.
I guess to me personally he seems like someone who is incredibly talented at fearmongering and then positioning himself as a bold solution to the crisis... which a lot of people seem to want when they are upset at their situation and see the other canidate as weak.

 

[yellowjester]

I think they are upset about inflation and don't care about how the GDP/ economy overall is doing, since it doesn't affect them directly. To them the economy is just how much groceries and rent cost. They are pinning these cost increases on Biden, and it seems to be playing well into Trump's narrative about Biden mismanaging national security and immigration as well, since Trump especially hates even slightly unequal trade deals or the US being seen as weak internationally. Trump is trying to tie in the immigration crisis to the economy and America's perceived international weakness as well.

Trump never cared too much about polarizing social issues like abortion, BLM, and LGBTQ rights either, which is helping him pick up record numbers from the affected populations in the polls, since some of them otherwise sympathize with his agenda.
I guess to me personally he seems like someone who is incredibly talented at fearmongering and then positioning himself as a bold solution to the crisis... which a lot of people seem to want when they are upset at their situation and see the other canidate as weak.

Do you think Gavin Newsom would have a better chance at winning the swing states than decrapid Biden?